Updated on: Jan 11th, 2025
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3 min read
The Union Budget of India is an annual financial statement presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. This is her eighth union budget to the Parliament. It outlines the government's estimated revenue and expenditure for the upcoming fiscal year.
As a vital economic document, it plays a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of various sectors and driving market movements. With the Union Budget for 2025 just around the corner, this article focuses on identifying stocks that may benefit from anticipated budgetary measures.
The Union Budget plays a pivotal role in shaping the Indian economy. Key decisions, such as:
These factors directly influence the performance of various sectors and individual companies. As such, understanding the potential impact of the budget can help investors track stocks that could see movement based on the expected budget measures to make speculative gains as well.
Insurance sector
This Union Budget is expected to remove the GST on health insurance premiums, reducing people's burden in securing their health.
Mutual Fund Industry
AMFI has released a 15-point proposal on the restoration of long-term indexation benefits for debt schemes,
and requested more changes in taxation in the long term.
Infrastructure and Construction
The budget is expected to allocate a significant portion to infrastructure development, driving demand for
construction materials, engineering services, and related sectors.
Automobiles and Electric Vehicles (EVs)
The government is expected to incentivize EV adoption, including subsidies for EVs and charging infrastructure. This focus on green mobility could make certain automobile stocks a focus.
Technology and Digital Economy
With an emphasis on digital infrastructure, IT, and AI, the tech sector is likely to be a major beneficiary.
Financials and Banking
Changes in fiscal policy, corporate tax rates, and capital markets could have a significant impact on financial institutions.
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare
Increased budgetary allocation for healthcare and social welfare programs will likely benefit pharmaceutical companies.
Renewable Energy and Green Technologies
With a strong emphasis on green initiatives, renewable energy stocks are expected to benefit from the
government's push towards sustainability.
Consumer Goods and FMCG
Changes in taxation and rural subsidies could influence consumer spending patterns, benefiting consumer goods companies.
The notable stocks which are expected to have more volatility on the budget:
SECTORS | STOCKS |
INSURANCE |
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MUTUAL FUND |
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INFRA & CONSTRUCTION |
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EV’S |
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TECHNOLOGY & DIGITAL ECONOMY |
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BANKING |
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HEALTH CARE |
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RENEWABLE ENERGY |
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FMCG |
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Analysis: The above stocks has been selected upon expectations, market cap and the market share they own in the market, and expecting to be more volatile on the budget day upon the previous budget's trading
history.
Market Sentiment: Prebudget reactions often show heightened volatility as traders and investors react to leaks and speculation.
Sector Performance: Sectors expecting budget allocations or tax relief could see rallies in the days leading up to the budget.
Taxation and Policy Changes: Any shifts in taxes or incentives can directly impact specific stocks, especially in sectors like financials, automobiles, and infrastructure.
Past Trends: Analyzing how sectors performed in previous budgets (such as in Union Budgets 2023 and 2024) can give insight into potential market reactions.
Option data: Need to analyse the past 2-3 days of option data like pricing, volume, implied volatility, open interest, PCR and FII data.
Key Points
Investors should look for stocks in sectors expecting higher budgetary allocations or favourable policy
changes. Short-term positioning in stocks benefiting from anticipated budget measures could lead to gains.
Investment Approach
While short-term positioning might be attractive, long-term investment strategies focusing on sustained
growth sectors (like technology, infrastructure, and green energy) are generally recommended.
Caution
Budget announcements can introduce volatility, so stock movements may vary post-budget depending on
actual measures and market sentiment.
Outlook
The market outlook post-budget will depend on the specific budget measures and their impact on key
economic indicators like inflation, GDP growth, and fiscal deficit.
Monitor Sectoral Reactions
After the budget is announced, investors should track how stocks in key sectors respond and adjust
portfolios accordingly.
Adjust Investment Strategy
Post-budget market movements may necessitate adjustments to investment strategies based on sector
performance and policy outcomes.
Related Budget Articles:
Budget 2025 Expectations on Income Tax
Budget 2025 - Date, Time, When and Where to Watch Live?